Who will be the successor after the departure of the Castro era

Star News International Desk: Rafael (not the real name) is going to finish school soon from Havana University. But his heart is in some other place. Consistent with the Cuban situation, there are studies on finance and economics. That's how he reads. He thinks that these can not be applied in another country in the same way.

The Cuban socialist government is carrying its education. Get 4 dollar scholarships for a living. It is enough to buy 10 times the food from the canteen of the University. In addition, he gets the lunch money from the brothers living abroad. Rafael also wants to go abroad. He is looking for scholarship for a master's degree from a European country. If you get it, then the desire to stay there. According to him, he can earn real money there.

Many more Cuban young people are thinking like Rafael. None of them are angry with Cuba's regime. They also do not oppose socialism. But they want to flee from the country. So Rafael has no excitement about the sudden change in the country's constitution. Although the news of Cuban 60 years of change in governance has become a global discussion.

Cuban President Raul Castro is leaving power on Thursday after being in power for a decade. This is going to end in the Castro era of the six decades. His elder brother, legendary leader Fidel Castro, came to power in the state of revolution in 1959. In 2008, 86-year-old Raul Castro came to power when Fidel Castro fell ill. Cuba has ruled almost 60 years with two brothers. In the Soviet era of Cuban's all-powerful Allied mighty Soviet Union, socialism was abolished and even after it became fragmented, the two brothers had kept socialism in their own country.

But all this is not affecting young student Rafael. He thinks it's time to leave for Castro. But 'it does not matter to me - it does not matter.

But it is not a matter of Rafael, but it is a big deal for most of the 10 million people in Cuba; Especially those who are not easy to leave this state. The transfer of power to the country is almost never seen. It is believed that Raul Castro will transfer power to the country's first 'Vice President Miguel Días-Canal'. When Raúl Castro's older brother Fidel Castro removed the United States-backed dictator Falljaccio Batista in 1959, Dias-Canal was not born. It is expected that the next generation of revolution in the country will bring about changes in governance and will highlight the expectations of the general public to the government. But how the new leaders will raise issues is still not clear.

Vice President Dias-Kanel is an engineer. He has earned reputation for honesty in the government and the Communist Party for three decades. He used to move the bicycle instead of the office car in the central province of Villa Culla, Cuba. Last time he voted in line with other voters in the country's one-party parliamentary election. In thought he is generous compared to others. He has long been favoring homosexual rights. In the wake of criticism of some student blogger government in 2013, the Internet was put under control. At that time, Dias-Kanel met the students. Later, he came in front of the media in front of the students and said, banning something in this era of the Internet is nothing but morose.

Dias-Kanel's name came in the form of a major change in the country. The Cuban parliament nominated him as the successor to Raul Castro. Dias-Kannel was the only candidate for the post. Some unrestrained conservatives, such as José Ramón Machado Ventura and Ramiro Valdes, can leave the Council of State, a powerful organization for law enforcement. Dias-Canal is heard to form a new cabinet with his own people. But this change will not happen quickly. Raul Castro can remain the leader of Politburo until 2021, this will control the Communist Party. Politburo will give guidance on policy matters. Ventura as a second-in-command And Dias-Kannel will be the third powerful person.

But the Cuban residents are expecting a change, as the reformer could not be Días-Canal. A video of the private meeting of the Communist Party spread in August last year. It is seen that he will stop the government's critics and hold the prominent citizens down. In 2015, US President Barack Obama began to relax the ban on Cuba. It did not like Diaz-Kennel. He said it was the plot to destroy the Cuban Revolution. After watching this video, many people say that Dias-Canal has confirmed the path to being president. This video proves that he is not a friend of critics of the government and the United States. In this case, he is more adversative than Fidel Castro and Raul Castro. There is no hope that the Opposition or the free media will open the way.

But in the case of reforms, Diaz-Canel can follow the rule of the Communist Party of China and Vietnam - it can be expected. The market has been liberated through political control and citizens have been asked to enrich themselves. But Cuban politicians believe that this system can make their country a country of cheap goods for the rich Americans.

According to analysts, Dias-Canal can not be reformed in some areas. The economic situation in the country is fragile. It's being more vulnerable day by day. In the case of business, the situation is worse than before. It dropped from $ 8 billion in 2012 to $ 2.1 billion in 2016. After Hurricane Erma was hit in September last year, budget deficit in Cuba stood at 12 percent of GDP. There is no development in the villages. Agriculture production has stopped for a decade. 60 to 70 percent of food items are imported from different countries.

Pavel Vidal, former Cuban central bank economist, said that the size of the Cuban economy was reduced by one-third to 1985. At that time the assistance from the Soviet Union came from the allies of the country. Now there is no chance.

Cuban monthly income of more than two-thirds is $ 30. They work in various inefficient national sectors. Although the per capita income is less education, the treatment is available free of cost. State subsidies also include food and housing sectors.

During the decade of Raul Castro, several reformative steps were taken to speed up the fragile economy and to increase foreign investment and private sector participation. But due to the government's effective role in implementing those steps, it could not fulfill the expectations.

However, according to Professor William Leogrand of American University of Washington DC, Cuba will benefit from long-term reforms. Raul's successors will be on the path of his reform, Raul Cuba Ding Ziao Ping. Deng made changes in China through reform. But when the reforms stop, Raul will be considered as a reformist communist. He will be asked about him, despite his efforts, he could not bring any change in the traditional system. Reuters and BBC support ............... Red More

The Star News BD.com / MSR